How likely a business scholar gets an article published in top journal? As a PhD student in business school, this question unsurprisingly comes into my mind. Lucrative academic job always requires (either implicitly or explicitly) applicants to have an article published in top journal (or at least close to publication, e.g. revise and resubmit). So, having publication in top journal is the most important thing (one of my professor said that it is not the most important thing, but the only thing. I think his opinion is extreme, but there is a truth there). Back to my question, how likely it is for an article to get published in a top business journal?
I initially took Academy of Management Journal (AMJ) as case study. According to its editorial report, the acceptance rate of AMJ is 8%. So what this number implies to an average PhD student? Let’s use geometric distribution to solve this problem, and let's assume that one paper submission is independent to one another. That means the average trials to finally get published into AMJ is (ยต) = 1/0.08 = 12.5. In other words, it will take 12 to 13 submission trials to finally get into AMJ publication.
Let’s check other number, this time Strategic Management Journal (SMJ). The acceptance rate of SMJ, according to one source, is 3%. So, the average trials it takes to finally get published in SMJ is 33.3. What? An average person must write 33 articles before finally gets accepted in SMJ? Let’s check another one: Journal of International Business Studies (JIBS). The acceptance rate of JIBS is 6%. That means average trials to get published into JIBS at the end of the trial is 16 to 17. It sounds crazy!!
Now, how to interpret this number to make sense of our life? I put myself as focal point. I am first year PhD student, right now I am writing two papers with two different professors. I have 4-5 years ahead of me to complete my PhD. During 4-5 years, I think I can write maximum 5 papers only. So, what is the chance for me to get my fifth paper published in AMJ/SMJ/JIBS? Again applying geometric distribution into real work, the probability to get my fifth paper published is P(x=5) = (1-p)^5-1 x p, replace p with 8%, 3% and 6% for AMJ, SMJ and JIBS respectively. So for AMJ, the probability to get my fifth paper published is 5.7%. It is 2.7% for SMJ and 4.7% for JIBS. Crazy right? I don't wanna be crazy, so I will try 5 times. If It doesn’t work, I will just continue my (real) life, as simple as that.
I initially took Academy of Management Journal (AMJ) as case study. According to its editorial report, the acceptance rate of AMJ is 8%. So what this number implies to an average PhD student? Let’s use geometric distribution to solve this problem, and let's assume that one paper submission is independent to one another. That means the average trials to finally get published into AMJ is (ยต) = 1/0.08 = 12.5. In other words, it will take 12 to 13 submission trials to finally get into AMJ publication.
Let’s check other number, this time Strategic Management Journal (SMJ). The acceptance rate of SMJ, according to one source, is 3%. So, the average trials it takes to finally get published in SMJ is 33.3. What? An average person must write 33 articles before finally gets accepted in SMJ? Let’s check another one: Journal of International Business Studies (JIBS). The acceptance rate of JIBS is 6%. That means average trials to get published into JIBS at the end of the trial is 16 to 17. It sounds crazy!!
Now, how to interpret this number to make sense of our life? I put myself as focal point. I am first year PhD student, right now I am writing two papers with two different professors. I have 4-5 years ahead of me to complete my PhD. During 4-5 years, I think I can write maximum 5 papers only. So, what is the chance for me to get my fifth paper published in AMJ/SMJ/JIBS? Again applying geometric distribution into real work, the probability to get my fifth paper published is P(x=5) = (1-p)^5-1 x p, replace p with 8%, 3% and 6% for AMJ, SMJ and JIBS respectively. So for AMJ, the probability to get my fifth paper published is 5.7%. It is 2.7% for SMJ and 4.7% for JIBS. Crazy right? I don't wanna be crazy, so I will try 5 times. If It doesn’t work, I will just continue my (real) life, as simple as that.
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